Henderson‐Trending of Macroeconomic Variables and Forecasting Accuracy

Using a structural time‐series model, the forecasting accuracy of a wide range of macroeconomic variables is investigated. Specifically of importance is whether the Henderson moving‐average procedure distorts the underlying time‐series properties of the data for forecasting purposes. Given the weight of attention in the literature to the seasonal adjustment process used by various statistical agencies, this study hopes to address the dearth of literature on ‘trending’ procedures. Forecasts using both the trended and untrended series are generated. The forecasts are then made comparable by ‘detrending’ the trended forecasts, and comparing both series to the realised values. Forecasting accuracy is measured by a suite of common methods, and a test of significance of difference is applied to the respective root mean square errors. It is found that the Henderson procedure does not lead to deterioration in forecasting accuracy in Australian macroeconomic variables on most occasions, though the conclusions are very different between the one‐step‐ahead and multi‐step‐ahead forecasts. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Exploring Survey‐Based Inflation Forecasts

This paper first shows that survey‐based expectations (SBE) outperform standard time series models in US quarterly inflation out‐of‐sample prediction and that the term structure of survey‐based inflation forecasts has predictive power over the path of future inflation changes. It then proposes some empirical explanations for the forecasting success of survey‐based inflation expectations. We show that SBE pool a large amount of heterogeneous information on inflation expectations and react more flexibly and accurately to macro conditions both contemporaneously and dynamically. We illustrate the flexibility of SBE forecasts in the context of the 2008 financial crisis. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

数学机械化方法在特征值问题中的应用

将我国数学家吴文俊在二十世纪七十年代倡导的并发展起来的数学机械化理论和方法应用到代数特征值问题中,把现代的数学观点反映到数学教学中来,这对于提高学生的数学思维层次,发展创新意识和实践能力会有一定的帮助.     

幂级Hermite环

介绍了Hermite环的一类推广幂级Hermite环,证明了:1)HR是幂级Hermite环当且仅当R是幂级Hermite环;2)R[D,C]是幂级Hermite环当且仅当D和C都是幂级Hermite环,其中C是D的子环;3)若R[χ,σ]是幂级Hermite 环,则R也是幂级Hermite环,反之不然.     

高职英语教学中开设英语影视赏析课的探索

从激发学生的学习兴趣、及时获取时代感强的日常用语、树立正确的情感态度和价值观以及充分发挥教师的主导作用入手,剖析在高职英语教学中开设英语影视赏析课的必要性,并从课前准备、影视欣赏、赏后分析三个阶段对教学方法进行初步探讨。     

无穷级数求和的理论分析

阐述了级数的Cauchy,Cesaro,Abel3种求和法,并论证了在某种条件下3种方法之间的相互区别与紧密联系,从而加强了学生对求和方法的理解和运用.     

基于DS18B20测温的ARM温度采集系统研究

通过研究实现了以ARM为核心的温度采集系统,采用数字温度计芯片DS18B20构成测温单元,设计了DSl8B20与ARM连线图,并介绍了如何实现温度采集以及与PC机间的数据通讯。PC机可把接收到的ARM采集到的温度数据进行整理并显示,具有一定的实用价值。     

一类Schr(o)dinger-Virasoro型李代数中间序列模的分类

主要考虑了一类形变Schr(o)dinger-Virasoro型李代数L的中间序列模,给出了此类模的完全分类.     

万家寨引黄连接段7号洞进口和出口梯形堰室内率定试验

对万家寨引黄连接段7号洞进口和出口梯形堰采用不同比例尺的模型进行了室内系统试验,利用最小二乘法和系列模型延伸法进行分析判别,最终推定实际尺寸超过规范规定的梯形量水堰的流量因数,对工程在实际运行量测中具有指导意义。     

B-值Dirichlet级数确定的整函数的(p,q)(R)级和(p,q)(R)型

利用Newton多边形研究了B-值Dirichlet级数确定的整函数的增长性,较方便地得到了B-值Dirichlet级数的(p,q)(R)级及型和下(p,q)(R)级与系数关系的若干结果.